Rumors swirl on if he will or won’t, but one thing is for sure: the fans believe that Ned should be a big bad when Tom Holland’s Peter Parker starts his next outings in the MCU. Shortly after the release of Spider-Man: Far From Home, internet sleuths have done what they can to peg a very specific villainous identity on Peter Parker’s best friend played by Jacob Batalon. What’s more, the pot on this “fan casting” was stirred even more this past year with the release of Spider-Man: No Way Home and even more so during fans’ examination of the fall-out and implications of the film.

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Hollywood doesn’t just do thing because fans ask for it. A move has to make sense, and try as they might to fan cast along with celebrities who vocally campaign to play their dream role, it doesn’t always happen. In the case of Ned Leeds becoming the MCU’s Hobgoblin in its Spider-Man franchise, here are a few reasons why it should most definitely happen.

Ned Leeds’ Hobgoblin Comic Book History

     Marvel Comics  

A lot of buzz for Ned to eventually become Hobgoblin started around Far From Home, but really, the first clue to this possible transformation was planted back in the series’ first film, Spider-Man: Homecoming. Fans familiar with the comic book history of Spider-Man’s rogue gallery were quick to connect the dots on this one, as Ned Leeds becoming Hobgoblin is actually rooted in the comics themselves in one of the most intriguing storylines in all of Spider-Man lore. Indeed, Ned made his first appearance as a reporter in 1964’s The Amazing Spider-Man #18. By comparison, Hobgoblin did not make his debut until 1983’s The Amazing Spider-Man #238.

Here is where things get really interesting: while Ned Leeds was the first person to be revealed as Hobgoblin in 1987, it wasn’t until 1997 that we found out that Leeds was a scapegoat and found the true identity of the villain as Roderick Kingsley. That means, a show which featured several appearances by Hobgoblin, and which was very popular on Saturday mornings, did not know the true name of the villain that was being portrayed for most of it’s run in 1994-1998 of Spider-Man: The Animated Series. Leeds was made to be a scapegoat as the first Hobgoblin until he was ultimately killed off in the one-shot from 1986 Spider-Man vs Wolverine. The character clearly has a strong connection with the villain in the comics, and even though he is mainly represented as a brainwashed lackey, the MCU has taken liberties with characters in the past, and this would be no exception to that history.

The Best Friend-Turned-Villain Treatment

     Sony  

In the previous Spider-Man films featuring Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield, Harry Osborn, son of Norman Osborn, plays the best friend to Peter Parker. The role is played by James Franco and Dane DeHaan, respectively. In the Raimi trilogy, Franco’s Harry starts out as Peter’s best friend before ultimately discovering Parker’s identity after he believes Spider-Man killed his father. This drives the two apart only to be re-united, as allies, for a short time in Spider-Man 3. In The Amazing Spider-Man, DeHaan’s Harry is largely driven crazy by the serum he injects himself with after the death of his father by a rare genetic disease that was revealed to have been passed to Harry.

Clearly, a precedent has been set when it comes to the Spider-Man films: apparently, if you are Peter’s best friend, it’s a part-time position that eventually leads to becoming Spider-Man’s villain. This time around, though, the knife would cut deeper than the previous films because as the crow flies, the journey with Ned has been longer. After the events of Spider-Man: No Way Home, Peter had already essentially lost Ned as his best friend, MJ has his girlfriend, and Happy as his mentor. Additionally, with the death of May, he has no family. Seeing a battle between the Wall-Crawler play out with Ned as Hobgoblin would be a different kind of hurt. Peter still has those memories and would no doubt try to appeal to Ned to remember their past life as well. Caught in the middle would be the audience having to watch this heart-wrenching turn of events. What would make it worse is if the fight ended the way of the last two. Sure, at the end Franco and Maguire’s renditions made up, but Franco’s Harry still perished. This would be a whole new level of torment for Holland’s Peter having his best friend potentially die with nary a memory of the two together.

Peter Parker Just Cannot Catch a Break

     Sony / Marvel Studios  

At the core of Spider-Man, Marvel advertises two things associated with the character. The first is that anyone can be Spider-Man. From Peter Parker, to Ben Reilly, back to Miles Morales, and more, a lot of characters have held the moniker of the Friendly Neighborhood Spider-Man. The second is, at his core, Peter is particularly a tale of tragedy. He has moments of triumph, sure, because he is the hero, and the hero wins — but, for Peter, it’s always at great cost. Simply put, Peter cannot catch a break. From the death of Aunt May and Tony in the Sony/MCU films, to losing his best friend as in the Maguire/Garfield films and perhaps most tragically, having Gwen in his web and not being able to slow her down in time before the dreaded smack of the head on the ground.

In the comics, it’s more of the same, especially with the “One More Day” story where Aunt May dies from a gun shot and Peter seeks the help of several characters until finding Mephisto disguised as a little girl. He agrees to restore Aunt May at the cost of Peters marriage to Mary Jane. The two agree, and Mephisto reveals his disguise is that of their future daughter, who will now never exist. The loss of his former best friend to villainy would just be another day at the office in the tragic tale of Spider-Man. No Way Home starts the tragedy off by having Peter lose everyone close to him. The next trilogy could certainly deepen the wound by having both Ned and Peter duke it out, as unwilling as Peter would be to partake in such a fight.

The future for the films is certainly bright even as Peter has lost everything. Audiences are clamoring to know what happens next as it is known there is more of the story to tell. A fan theory outlined by CBR suggests certain people are still aware of Parker’s heroism. One thing is for sure: whether is Ned turning into Hobgoblin or not, the writers are always keeping audiences on their feet and are constantly left wondering what is in store next for the Wall-Cralwer.